MBS RECAP: Bonds Reject Bad Break, But What's Next?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds were breathing easy by the time the domestic session got underway. Before that, they kicked off the overnight session in lower yield territory. Modest gains meant a friendly break below the potentially troubling resistance trend that had developed over the past 2.5 days. Pictures are worth more than words here, so here is an hourly 10yr candlestick chart as of this morning: Very little changed after that. Notably, this is the 2nd straight day where Treasuries have followed European bonds overnight and then mostly side-stepped through the domestic hours. This won't necessarily be a trend, and it's not so much interesting as it is a reflection of the absence of domestic market movers during that time. That same absence won't be intact tomorrow as the Fed Minutes hit at 2pm ET...(read more)

Mortgage Rates Fairly Flat Today, But Volatility Could Increase

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates held steady today, for the most part. If there was a leaning, it was toward slightly lower rates, but not by a wide enough margin to be significant. At first glance, holding steady at the lowest levels in nearly 3 years is great! In fact, it's still great at second glance. But the more information we consider, the more we may wonder why they're not lower. Reason being: 10yr Treasury yields (which often move in the same direction as mortgage rates and by similar amounts) are noticeably lower today! So why aren't mortgages following? For the explanation, we can simply dust off last Friday's commentary: The reasons for the discrepancies have to do with the fundamental differences between mortgages and Treasuries as investments. Simply put, a mortgage can be paid off any time whereas...(read more)