MBS RECAP: Trade Headlines Stealing Thunder From Heavy Hitters

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Last week saw an apparently important jobs report ATTEMPT to have a lasting impact on financial markets only for the move to be completely erased by this morning. Labor market data was already a bit of an outcast owing to its consistently strong performance in recent months/years (i.e. labor market strength is the rule, not the exception. Therefore, the strong report is less of a surprise and thus less of a market mover). But if we could only pick one reason for markets to ignore jobs data (or MOST data for that matter), it's the uncertain economic implications of an eventual trade deal. That also helps explain all of today's intraday volatility as bond yields were bumped up early in the domestic session by one batch of headlines and then again about an hour later by another batch of...(read more)

Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Ahead of Fed Announcement

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved up modestly today as bond markets weakened in response to trade headlines. This week's key consideration on the trade front is whether or not the planned December 15th tariff increase is delayed, canceled, or confirmed. In general, a delay or cancelation would be bad for rates, but markets are already expecting a delay to some extent. The bigger deal would be waking up Monday morning of next week to find the tariff hike had been implemented. In that case, rates would likely benefit (i.e. move lower!). Between now and then, we are most likely to see moderate volatility in a fairly narrow range. Several optimistic trade headlines put upward pressure on rates today, but not enough to push them outside their recent range. Tomorrow brings a policy announcement from the Fed ...(read more)