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MBS RECAP: Jerky Knees After Fed

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today brought the (not very) much-anticipated FOMC Minutes--a more detailed account of the conversation that transpired at the end of July when the Fed announced its rate cut. As expected, some at the Fed wanted to cut more. Some wanted to cut less. The consensus was that it was a mid-cycle rate adjustment that left room for the Fed to hike again or cut again depending upon how conditions evolve. This was perhaps somewhat less upbeat than some market participants may have hoped, but not so much so that we should credit the Fed as a market mover today. I'm more inclined to give the Fed some credit for nudging rate expectations microscopically higher and give the consolidation range credit for turning away the post-Fed rally in 10yr yields. To be clear, this is exactly in line with my pre...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Pop Higher

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved higher today, and it had nothing to do with any of the day's events or news headlines. Quite simply put, the bond market (which dictates the rates that can offered by lenders) had already begun to weaken as of yesterday afternoon. Weakness continued overnight as global financial markets dialed back their demand for safe havens. In market terms, a safe haven is generally a lower rate of return with a higher guarantee of the return remaining stable. Fixed rate government bonds from financially solvent countries are a classic safe haven. And no matter what you've heard in the news, the US mortgage market is also squarely in the safe haven camp. The only major risk associated with mortgages as far as investors are concerned is how long the mortgage will last. That uncertainty...(read more)

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