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Sluggish Loan Applications Show Weakness in New Home Sales

Posted To: MND NewsWire

While the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is predicting newly constructed homes sold at a much higher rate in November than they did a year earlier, sales are expected to be down significantly from this past October. MBA's Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for November 2019 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 27.1 percent compared to November 2018 but were down 17 percent from the prior month. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns. Based on the application data and information about market coverage and other data, the association estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 688,000 units during the month. This estimate is a decrease of 13 percent from the October pace of 791,000...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: A New Way to Look at The Range

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Yesterday brought a nice little rally in response to a surprisingly rate-friendly press conference with Fed Chair Powell. The counterpoint to that conclusion is seen in the chart I posted in yesterday's recap. Specifically, bonds began the day rallying and were in the midst of a linear trend toward lower yields when Powell's press conference briefly took yields below that trend. They ultimately returned to the trend by the end of the day. My efforts to de-emphasize the significance of the Fed (and NFP before that) are not without a solid reason. Yes, these events can and will cause reactions on the day of their release--especially when they surprise markets. But unlike the average past example (especially before mid 2019), they haven't been up to the task of creating lasting momentum...(read more)

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