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MBS RECAP: Markets Finally Doing Interesting Things, But...

Posted To: MBS Commentary

We had to wait all the way until January 24th of 2020, but bonds finally offered their first real shred of willingness to challenge the established range of late 2019. When we talk about ranges, we use 10yr Treasuries for these reasons . In 10yr terms, the range has been 1.71 to 1.95%, which is reasonably narrow for a 3 month+ time frame. It looked like the range would be quickly crushed as war with Iran quickly entered the realm of possibility on the night of the missile attacks against Iraqi air bases. But with the de-escalation the following day, the range was actually strongly reinforced. Rates have been trickling since then without more than a 5bp move in 10yr yields until today. That same move also breaks us well below the 1.71% boundary to close at 1.686%. As we often discuss, the first...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Drop to 4.5-Month Lows on Virus Fears

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved meaningfully lower over the past 2 days as panic over the coronavirus outbreak continues affecting financial markets. If this epidemic ends up being similar to SARS in 2003, it ultimately won't be worth as much of a drop in interest rates as we've seen so far. But the thing about brand new strains of deadly viruses is that neither the market nor the medical community knows exactly how this will unfold. Until that picture becomes clearer, the market is preparing for more dire outcomes. For whatever it's worth, the timeline of the SARS outbreak spanned 2 calendar years (2002 - 2004) but the most notable market impact was confined to the space of a single month (March 2003). We'll be a week into February before the current epidemic reaches a similar milestone. I'm basing that...(read more)

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